foreign affairs choices theory

Less likelihood of decision paralysis: Con-div is less likely to result in decision paralysis than polythink, especially if the group has a strong leader who sets a clear vision for the organization that motivates group members and other followers. Rational actors are assumed to employ purposive action, to display consistent preferences, and to maximize utility (MacDonald, 2003, p. 552). Hudson (2014, p. 74) observed that most high-level policy decisions are made in small groups: “serious discussion of,say, a crisis situation, almost demands that the leader be able to sit around a table with a set of peers, and engage in candid and far-ranging debate of policy options.” And indeed, in a crisis situation, the critical decision unit typically consists of a leader and very few advisors. This theory holds that people are risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-acceptant with respect to losses (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). The term polythink implies many ways of perceiving the same decision problem, goals, or solutions (Mintz et al., 2005). Editing phase: A problem, with associated losses and gains, is presented. How such units are composed shapes policy options and ultimately decisions (Hermann & Hermann, 1989). After this first stage, the different choices are evaluated based on a more traditional utility maximizing strategy (Mintz & DeRouen, 2010, p. 86). The DDG is responsible for identifying courses of action. Vice versa for gains. It is very likely that a decision unit that is handicapped by polythink will reach a different decision than a decision unit plagued by groupthink. It can be contrasted with the homogeneous, uniform, monolithic viewpoint of groups characterized by groupthink. The following is a review of key theories that explain and predict foreign policy decision-making processes and choice. Then, policymakers will proceed down the list of dimensions, eliminating alternatives that have low scores on secondary key dimensions. However, the weight (or importance level) of each decision criterion is rarely equal to other criteria. Bounded rationality theory and poliheuristic theory are some of the satisficing theories of decision-making. Most foreign policy decisions are interactive and sequential. Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com. Under con-div, group members who share the same general goals and objectives may be able to rise above smaller disagreements, if there are any. They disagree on the exact meaning of power and on how and to what extent politics is likely to influence policy. The group exhibits self-censorship and feelings of invulnerability and does not tolerate contrary viewpoints as it seeks to consolidate its unanimity (Janis, 1982). Typically, a leader presents his or her preferred way of acting, and group members deliberate over it. There are a number of important consequences of polythink, some of which (confusion, leaks, and framing) are counterintuitive. Evaluation phase: a choice is made, and the change that occurs from the initial level is the point of reference. The point of intersection is not the state, it is human decision makers. The rational actor model relies on individual state-level interactions between nations and government behavior as units of analysis; it assumes the availability of complete information to policymakers for optimized decision ma… 0 comments. They tend to provide temporary solutions rather than solve problems. Decisions made by organizations are often based on standard operating procedures (SOPs). Thus, foreign policy decisions emerge through an abstract political space rather than a formal decision procedure that relies on the formal chain of command. Braybrooke and Lindblom (1963, p. 71) assert that this is the typical kind of problem solving encountered in everyday politics. The link was not copied. After considering alternatives and choosing the preferred one, a larger group, consisting of cabinet members or other key executives, evaluates the situation and recommends an alternative (Sofrin, 2017). This is a fan-run community for the mobile game *Choices: Stories You Play* by Pixelberry. “Framing effects occur in this phase because prospect theory asserts that the way the decision information is presented can affect the choice.” Many psychological experiments have been presented which support this behaviour. Allison (1971, p. 30) defines rationality as “consistent, value-maximizing choice within specific constrains.” The rational decision-maker chooses the alternative that provides the consequence that is most preferred (Allison, 1971). 172–173). Realists explain foreign policy in terms of power politics. One World, Rival Theories The study of international relations is supposed to tell us how the world works. The Nash equilibrium would be for both to defect, since the prisoner 1 does not know what 2 will do, the choice of defection is better than cooperation. Because of these constraints, individuals develop decision procedures that enable them to deal more effectively and decisively with both their own cognitive limitations as well as with the demands imposed by the decision environment (March, 1986; Simon, 1985, 1957). With additional chapters by Valerie M. Hudson, Derek H. Chollet, and James M. Goldgeier. share. Often governmental decisions involve little uncertainty, are not crisis decisions, and are made on the basis of some a priori guideline or administrative rule (Dougherty & Pfaltzgraff, 1990, p. 487). When the dynamics in the “small group” (DDG) is of groupthink, but the “large group” (DAG) is characterized by polythink, the ultimate decision will be similar to the one recommended by the small group. Abstract A significant and growing literature on international relations (IR) argues that domestic politics is typically an important part of the explanation for states' foreign policies, and seeks to understand its influence more precisely.I argue that what constitutes a “domestic-political” explanation of a state's foreign policy choices has not been clearly elaborated. According to the lexicographic decision rule (Payne, Bettman, & Johnson, 1988), policymakers will select from among policy alternatives based solely on the dimension (criterion) most important to them. The term poliheuristic can be broken down into “the roots poly (many) and heuristic (shortcuts), which alludes to the cognitive mechanisms used by decision-makers to simplify complex foreign policy decisions” (Mintz et al., 1997, p. 554). More likelihood for framing effects: Polythink may cause advisors to rely on biased or selective information to effectively make their point, and make it convincing, in order to rise above the crowd of other advisors’ opinions. spoiler. Cashman (1993, pp. Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. The theory consists of two phases: “In the Editing phase, the decision is presented, options are identified, the outcomes and their associated probabilities are also ascertained. Foreign policy involves goals, strategies, measures, management methods, guidelines, directives, agreements, and so on. 157–160; Rosenberg, 1995, p. 111): Analyze alternatives by considering the costs and benefits of each alternative and probabilities associated with success, Select an alternative that maximizes chance of selecting the best alternative. These include In this scenario, the group is most likely to benefit from thorough yet productive decision-making processes that consider a multitude of options but ultimately reach some sort of consensus or agreement and execute well-formulated policies and actions. The Value of Foreign Policy Analysis The single most important contribution of FPA to IR theory is to identify the point of theoretical intersection between the primary determinants of state behavior: material and ideational factors. Thus, whereas multiple advocacy is a type of polythink, it is important to note that most forms, structures, and variants of polythink are not multiple advocacy. However, deliberations may be prolonged en route to a decision if this dynamic exists in a group. Redd (2005, p. 129) examined President Bill Clinton’s decision-making in the Kosovo crisis and found that Clinton’s decision was influenced by “non-compensatory domestic political calculations and strong influence of his Secretary of State, Madeleine K. Albright.”. Framing effects occur in this phase. Commentary by foreign policy analysts on the first season of HBO's Game of Thrones stressed its supposed underlying theme of political realism. Confusion and lack of communication: Exacerbated by the often unwieldy size of the federal national security and diplomatic infrastructures, polythink will increase confusion through willful lack of communication, mixed messages sent from different members of the decision-making unit, and inadvertent failures to effectively communicate between the large and diverse decision-making structure. Recommended Citation Daniel Abebe, "The Global Determinants of U.S. Foreign Affairs Law" (University of Chicago Public Law & Legal Theory Working Paper No. Bureaucratic institutions compete and negotiate internally before they present a policy alternative to a leader, but at the same time try to protect the interests of bureaucratic politics. The likelihood of members of the group framing it in opposite directions when there is a group consensus, as in groupthink, is more limited. They also overweigh losses relative to comparable gains (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Levy, 1992, 1997). Less likelihood of ignoring critical information than in groupthink: Due to the plurality of opinions in the con-div group (although not quite as pronounced as in polythink), critical information that may affect the decision is less likely to be ignored than in groupthink. When the “small group” (DDG) agrees on its preferred course of action, the leader and his or her advisors will make any effort to gain support from the “large group” (DAG). Discuss your favorite books, characters, theories, and more here! Change ), You are commenting using your Facebook account. Change ), You are commenting using your Twitter account. Foreign Affairs is the leading magazine for in-depth analysis and debate of foreign policy, geopolitics and global affairs Foreign Affairs. It is therefore more useful to think of these two models as extremes on a continuum in which “good” decision-making processes typically lie toward the middle, whereas defective decision-making processes lean closer to one of two extremes—the group conformity of groupthink or the group disunity of polythink (Geroge, 1972). Players. Defection would mean that you admit your crime without the other knowing, but you will be released (huge gain) if the other prisoner does not defect. The poliheuristic decision making process takes place in two stages. 63–64). The balance of power theory is a core tenet of both classical and neorealist theory and seeks to explain alliance formation. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002. Braybrooke and Lindblom (1963) describe a standard operating procedure known as “incrementalism” (see also Wildavsky, 1964). In other words, options are first considered on one crucial, non-compromising dimension. Snyder, Richard C., H. W. Bruck, and Burton Sapin, eds. This is likely to confuse the decision-maker (along with the decision-maker’s constituency) and make him or her less clear on the optimal course of action. Scholars distinguish between “thin” rationality, the strategic pursuit of stable and ordered preferences, and “thick” rationality, which assumes, in contrast, that actors have specific preferences. According to the poliheuristic two-step decision rule, policymakers first eliminate alternative courses of action from consideration based on a non-compensatory rule and then select from among remaining alternatives based on a maximizing decision rule. Mintz and Geva (1997, p. 84) assert that the “political dimension is important in foreign policy decisions not so much because politicians are driven by public support, but because they are averse to loss and would therefore reject alternatives that may hurt them politically.” Because it is based on cognitive, simplifying heuristics and other rules of thumb that leaders use in the first phase of the decision, poliheuristic theory can also explain complicated foreign policy decisions (Mintz, 2004). Steinbruner (1974) provides several examples of cybernetic decision-making in the everyday world. “Satisficing” implies that decision-makers stop searching for information once they have found a satisfactory alternative; moreover, this alternative need not to be the optimal one, merely one that satisfies some minimum threshold (Monroe, 1991; Zey, 1992). Due to the many divergent viewpoints within the decision-making unit, consensus and clarity can be incredibly difficult. This group is called the decision approval group (DAG). Once the DDG agrees on the preferred way of action, it is presented to a larger team—a cabinet, or a government—for approval. Diplomats must understand the tension between individual needs and state requirements, and engage with that tension without detriment to the state. There have been cases of government cabinets and executives working in harmony, sharing the same vision, the same key goals, and agendas, while debating policy alternatives, yet producing bad decisions. 648. State Department official George Kennan, using the pseudonym “Mr. According to this theory, “policy makers employ a two stage decision calculus consisting of: (1) rejecting policies that are unacceptable to the policy maker on a critical dimension or dimensions, and (2) selecting an alternative from the subset of remaining alternatives while maximizing benefits and minimizing risks” (Mintz & DeRouen, 2010, p. 79). It's a tall order, and even the best theories fall short. According to the satisficing decision rule, a policymaker will select an alternative that is “good enough” but not necessarily “the best” (as assumed in all rational choice models). That scope of power did exist in foreign constitutions and ( Log Out /  Incrementalism leads to decisional inertia because the same alternatives are chosen again and again and are accepted over and over (Mandel, 1986, p. 259). Copyright Greenberg Art. #playchoices #choices stories you play #choices #foreign affairs #choices fa #blaine hayes #blaine x mc #ive beem making the same type of fa posts cause there's nothing else to discuss lol 367 notes #foreign-affairs The most widely cited foreign policy analysis approach is the rational actor model. This can cause leaders to freeze up, as they are both unsure of whether their choice is correct and unclear as to whether their choice could even be accepted by the rest of their decision-making unit and their public. Some decisions are individualistic, whereas others are made in a group. The real tragedy of Trump’s inability to recognize these facts is the negative consequences that his failed foreign affairs beliefs and choices frequently have for those affected by them. Thick rationality (preferences dependent on the specific goals of the DM). The basic argument is that individuals face processing and other cognitive constraints that limit their computational capabilities, their memory, and recall abilities. Major foreign policy theories are Realism, Liberalism, Economic Structuralism, Psychological Theory, and Constructivism Examples of Foreign Policy In 2013 China developed a foreign policy known as the Belt and Road Initiative, the nation’s strategy to develop stronger economic ties in Africa, Europe, and North America. Some of the symptoms of polythink are intra-group conflict and the existence of contradictory interests among group members (Mintz & Wayne, 2016). As a result, it can often lead to suboptimal decisions (Mintz et al., 2005). However, if the other prisoner also defects, both will be much worse off than when they would have cooperated. Incrementalism in DM: SOPs are applied; minor fine-tuning changes are made to past decisions. Whereas groupthink tends toward overwhelming conformity and unanimity, polythink is characterized by a large plurality of opinions, views, and perceptions among group members. The expected utility theory approach plays an important role in rational choice theory – preferences are ranked “according to the degree of satisfaction of achieving these goals and objectives,” but within recognised constraints. Per Mintz and Wayne (2016), the symptoms of con-div are: Clearer policy direction than in polythink, with little to no confusion over direction: Since group members in con-div share the same goals and have no major disagreements over general policy, there will be less confusion than in polythink on action items, but probably more than in groupthink, where the group has consensus on its specific recommendations. The expected utility model of rational decision-making assumes that the decision-maker “attempts to maximize expected utility in his choice between risky options by weighing the utilities of individual outcomes by their probabilities and chooses the option with the higher weighted sum” (Levy, 1992, pp. Conformity to the group’s views is an overreaching concern for all members, so dissent is stifled and in some instances even punished. Thus, working in a con-div environment does not necessarily guarantee a good outcome. If they are low on this dimension, they will be automatically discarded, even if, in all other respects, the choice scores very high. For example, DeRouen (1995) utilized prospect theory to account for uses of military force when presidents are in political trouble. Members of the DDG will try to convince DAG members to support the DDG’s decision. Law and Legal Theory Working Papers by an authorized administrator of Chicago Unbound. Moreover, since group members do not hold uniform views of the situation under polythink, they are more likely to leak information in order to undermine positions that they oppose than in a groupthink situation. This may also lead to better decisions and more optimal outcomes. Prospect theory postulates that individuals evaluate outcomes as a function of deviations from a reference point. Low scores on other dimensions will not affect the ultimate decision, but a low score on the key dimension would automatically disqualify the alternative from consideration by that decision-maker (Mintz & DeRouen, 2010, p. 36). “Incrementalism leads to decisional inertia because the same alternatives are accepted over and over,” which could get out of hand if not uncontrolled and monitored. Instead of objectively searching all information for the best outcome, decision makers will select an alternative that is acceptable” or “good enough.” The cybernetic theory model minimizes uncertainty through the use of information feedback loops. ( Log Out /  His well-known example features a tennis player striking the ball without consciously making hundreds of mental calculations each time a shot is made. Often, con-div requires a leader with a clear vision and strong presence to bridge policy differences in pursuit of the goals of the organization. There are winning coalitions/individuals and losing coalitions/individuals” (Cashman, 1993; Mintz & DeRouen, 2010, p. 71). The sections above have focused on individual decision-makers (i.e., state leaders) in making foreign policy decisions (see also Allison, 1971; Bueno de Mesquita, 1981). Dec. 8, 1996 ... what might be behind this Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention -- which stipulates that … Foreign policy analysis is a branch of political science dealing with theory development and empirical study regarding the processes and outcomes of foreign policy. Under polythink, some members will use this selective information to frame offers, proposals, counterproposals, and even disagreements in different ways: some may give it a positive spin, others a negative spin. Thus, as is the case with groupthink, polythink is likely to lead to defective, suboptimal decisions; however, the mechanism for these flawed decision-making processes is the group’s disunity and diversity rather than the group’s unity and conformity. By Thomas L. Friedman. Prospect theory with its emphasis on loss aversion has broad implications for foreign policy decision-making and international relations. “Bureaucratic decisions are not cut and dry. According to the elimination by aspect decision rule, policymakers will eliminate alternatives sequentially based on dimensions they judge to be important in descending order. Since group members express different or opposing views of the situation and of potential solutions, there is less likelihood for the group to speak in one voice under polythink. The actors in this model are individuals sitting atop key organizations, each of which is trying to maximize its interests, agendas, and goals (Allison, 1971, p. 257). The authors thank Eldad Tal-Shir for research assistance. The three assumptions of rational choice theory in FPDM: Actors are assumed to employ actions that serve the purpose of specified goals (purposive actions), and not by habit or social expectations. Under the conjunctive decision rule, the decision-maker sets a minimum acceptable value for each dimension of the decision. A variety of traditional concepts of foreign policy remain helpful today as we consider the proper role of the United States in, and its approach to, foreign affairs. It also proposed a new, two-group model, which consists of a decision design group and a decision approval group. Foreign Affairs Theory/Weekly Recap/Analyzing Post for Chapters 1. A crude measure of the prevalence of such claims, arguments, and evidence is the proportion of International Organi- zation article abstracts that more or less explicitly invoke domestic politics or domestic-political factors in explanations for foreign policy choices. The decision making process rests exclusively on a cost-benefit analysis where the decision maker is expected to make the best decision, having analysed all the possible alternatives. Limited review of policy options: Paradoxically, polythink can lead to a limited review of policy options even though each advisor has distinct policy preferences. A dynamic foreign policy process? In other words, the harmony associated with con-div (though less than in groupthink) may lead to recommendations that are not challenged enough by group members, especially if the views of the leader are perceived as too dominant or strong. Copy this link, or click below to email it to a friend. Polythink can be seen as a mode of thinking that results from membership in a highly disjointed group rather than a highly cohesive one. Most game theoretic models of foreign policy decision-making are likewise based on rational choice assumptions. 390, 2012). Thus, decision-makers will often quickly exclude some options from consideration in order to be presented with a more manageable choice set for more thorough consideration. They can improve or decrease relationships with the characters. The second phase is the Evaluation phase, a choice is made based on the reference point and the value of utility function” (Levy, 1992; McDermott, 2004a). Change ). The group decision-making approach of foreign policy analysis challenges the monolithic view of nation states as unitary actors (Hudson & Vore, 1995). In the first stage, the decision maker omits any alternative of which one of the factors is below minimum level of acceptance -> according to the noncompensatory principle of political loss. Opportunity cost: the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen. National … foreign policy in parliamentary systems, ethnic groups or economic interest groups and foreign policy, culture and foreign policy, learning, prospect theory, emotions and decision-making, and intelligence failure, to name a few. Greater likelihood for intra-group conflict and leaks: As group members have different, sometimes even opposing views of the situation and of potential solutions, there is greater likelihood for group conflict due to polythink. Good luck and happy playing! The key to this model is that “there is no overarching master plan and that decisions emerge from political struggle and bargaining between groups (Dougherty & Pfaltzgraff, 1990, p. 477). This section is taken from Chapter 2 of Mintz and Wayne (2016). this is in comparison to groupthink, where group members share more common views. Theory of International Relations is grounded in analogies from microeconomics: international politics and foreign policy are analogous to markets and firms. Foreign Policy Decision Making – the role of psychology, cognition and personality, Snippet: The implications of Prospect Theory on FPDM, Snippet: In international relations, also focus on who are decision makers. Foreign Affairs Big Mac I. Members of the polythink decision-making unit, by virtue of their disparate worldviews, institutional affiliations, and decision-making styles, typically have deep disagreements over the same decision problem (Mintz & Wayne, 2016). This is the cognitive phase, where decisions are not individually scrutinised, but are roughly looked at and the ones which have a problem factor in them are omitted – on a satisficing basis. Too much harmony that may hinder real debate: Because group members in con-div share the same goals (although they may have different opinions with regard to specific policy directions), a leader’s dominant view may trigger an excess of harmony that will in turn lead to less debate over policy. Rather, the multiple advocacy model can actually be construed of as a type of structured, “pure” polythink process, in which the leader capitalizes on the already existing polythink dynamic to articulate divergent opinions of group members into a single, cohesive policy direction. This game revolves heavily around choices you make. When the dynamics in the “small group” (DDG) is of polythink and the dynamics in the “large group” (DAG) is of groupthink, the leader will make every effort to gain support within the “large group” and that course of action will be adopted (e.g., the debate in U.K. government on the preferred way to solve the dispute with Argentina in the Falkland Islands). The losses in utility one ‘experiences’ after a particular level, are far less than the first, initial losses. Bueno de Mesquita’s expected utility model (1981) posits that states will not go to war if the expected gains are smaller than expected losses. 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Hostages in 1980 even the best theories fall foreign affairs choices theory world order are some of which ( confusion leaks! They possess highly diverse or divisive opinions people are risk-averse with respect to losses Kahneman! Taken from Chapter 2 of Mintz and Wayne ( 2016 ), DeRouen ( 1995 ) utilized theory... 1993 ; Mintz & DeRouen, 2010, p. 71 ) from:. Some off-message comments strategies, measures, management methods, guidelines, directives, agreements, and coalition levels Hermann.

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